Canadian Election Prediction Challenge: Results

Liberals

Conservatives

NDP

Bloc Québécois

Green Party

Strength In Democracy

Independent & Other

Turnout: 17,553,469
(not the final number)

log in here to see how you did!

Some Surprises

Just before the election, the polls showed a narrow Liberal minority. This would probably explain why, out of the 51 people who made predictions on this site, most of us were waaaaay off.

Liberal win predictions:
35 (68.6%)

Liberal majority predictions:
2

Average number of Liberal seats:
124
(off by 60)

Highest number of Liberal seats:
171
(still off by 13)

Average number of NDP seats:
88
(twice the actual number)

High Scores

Thanks to everyone who participated! We're all winners, in our own way. (Note: If your username does not appear on the list below, you may not have saved a prediction, or you've modified your privacy settings.) To show or hide your username on this list, login here and then click "manage profile".

usernamescore
1SavvyVoter662
2tanjak650
3dmoc628
4gfinockio614
5deeremps612
6sorennordstrom610
7Couture608
8esweinst606
9txl604
10Jahiegel604
11anonymous598
12DrWinstonOBoogie598
13IceMonster596
14gordini90592
15reggie592
16TerryPEI2015590
17xilodon586
18Coffeeguy584
19jorl582
20ProHonky582
21nyarnahtan582
22PettyThiefLout582
23baconwiches582
24Emm580
25potatope578
26anonymous578
27rocksnikki574
28cliambrown574
29KateMac101572
30canadian101562
31jph560
32MakeAutoManusHappy560
33KeisterButton544
34snapsnap538
35FederalStud530
36JHoliday528
37brussell522
38chaostheoryq508
39paul502
40Emma498
41Kerry496
42matthew482
43aidinazrin23482
44VancouverCentral482
45liminalsoup480
46EhImCanadian474
47SyMoireibhMacAoidh458
48anonymous438
49livyloo432
50Harveballs414
51Lavallee25366

Scores were calculated as follows: 676 minus the sum of absolute values of differences between predicted and actual seats for all parties, plus 16 for correctly guessing a Liberal win, plus 8 for correctly guessing a Conservative Official Opposition. Turnout was used only as a tiebreaker.